Game Details:
Date & Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2025, at 9:10 p.m. ET
Location: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
Broadcast: truTV
Betting Odds & Lines:
Point Spread: Xavier favored by 2.5 points
Moneyline: Xavier -155, Texas +130
Over/Under: 149.5 points
BPI Projection: Texas has a 53.6% chance of winning (ESPN)
Team Overviews:
Texas Longhorns (19-15, 6-12 SEC): Texas’ season has been a rollercoaster, marked by a challenging SEC schedule. Despite a sub-.500 conference record, they secured an at-large bid, reflecting the selection committee’s recognition of their strength of schedule and competitive play. Texas boasts a dynamic offense, averaging 78.4 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 45.9% from the field. Defensively, they allow an average of 72.2 points per game.
Xavier Musketeers (21-11, 13-7 Big East): Xavier enters the tournament with a solid record, having finished strong in the competitive Big East. Their balanced approach features an offense averaging 78 points per game, shooting 45.9% from the field. Defensively, they allow 70.9 points per game.
Key Matchups to Watch:
Guard Play: Texas’ leading scorer, freshman guard Tre Johnson, averages 19.8 points per game. His matchup against Xavier’s defensive stalwart, guard Dayvion McKnight, who averages 1.4 steals per game, will be crucial. Johnson’s ability to navigate McKnight’s pressure could dictate Texas’ offensive rhythm.
Frontcourt Battle: Texas forward Arthur Kaluma, contributing 12.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, faces Xavier’s Zach Freemantle, who averages 15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds. This duel in the paint will be pivotal, as both players are integral to their teams’ inside scoring and rebounding efforts.
Betting Angles & Trends:
Against the Spread (ATS): Texas has been inconsistent, with an ATS record of 15-18-1, covering 45.5% of the time. Xavier, however, has fared better, with an ATS record of 19-13, covering 59.4% of the time. Bettors might lean towards Xavier, considering their stronger performance against the spread.
Over/Under Trends: Texas games have hit the over in 20 of 34 instances (58.8%), while Xavier’s games have gone over in 18 of 32 (56.3%). Given the high over/under line of 149.5 points, and both teams’ offensive capabilities, the over could be an attractive option.
Expert Predictions & Picks:
This matchup is poised to be a high-scoring affair, with both teams showcasing potent offenses. Xavier’s slight edge in defensive efficiency and better performance against the spread suggests they might cover the 2.5-point spread. However, Texas’ resilience and experience cannot be underestimated. Expect a closely contested game, potentially decided in the final possessions. The over on total points is a viable consideration, given both teams’ scoring tendencies.
The Sweat’s Best Bets:
Best Bet: Over 149.5 (-110) – Both teams favor high-paced offenses, and neither has an elite defense. A shootout is likely.
Lean: Xavier -2.5 (-110) – The Musketeers have been better against the spread, and their half-court execution should give them the edge late.
Prop Bet to Watch: Tre Johnson Over 19.5 Points (-115) – Texas leans on him heavily in big games, and he should see a high usage rate.
Final Thoughts: Texas Longhorns vs. Xavier Musketeers Preview:
The First Four clash between the Texas Longhorns and Xavier Musketeers promises an exhilarating start to the 2025 NCAA Tournament. With both teams eager to advance and prove their mettle, fans can anticipate a game filled with strategic plays, standout performances, and the quintessential March Madness excitement.
