Tip-Off: Friday, March 28, 2025 – 9:59 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: TBS
Introduction
It’s offense versus defense, finesse versus force, Big Ten grit versus Big 12 dominance—Purdue and Houston collide in a Sweet 16 clash that’s equal parts chess match and street fight.
Purdue, led by a do-it-all forward and an elite passer, enters as the underdog with something to prove. Meanwhile, Houston has steamrolled its way through the season, bringing the nation’s nastiest defense into the biggest weekend yet. Buckle up—this one’s got Elite Eight energy written all over it.
Team Overviews
Purdue Boilermakers (24–11, 13–7 Big Ten)
Purdue has had an up-and-down year by their recent standards, but don’t let the record fool you—this team can ball. Trey Kaufman-Renn has emerged as a star, averaging 20.3 points per game while shooting just under 60% from the floor. Point guard Braden Smith? Quietly one of the best floor generals in the country with 8.5 assists a game—2nd most in Division I.
The Boilermakers score 77.7 points per game (83rd nationally) and give up 70.6. But here’s the red flag: they’re one of the worst rebounding teams in the country at just 33.0 boards per game—ranked 349th out of 364. Against Houston? That could be a problem.
Houston Cougars (32–4, 19–1 Big 12)
Houston is built for March. They’ve got 32 wins, a 19–1 Big 12 record, and the scariest defense in the tournament—holding teams to just 58.4 points per game (2nd nationally). They don’t just slow you down—they squeeze the life out of your offense.
Offensively, they’re solid at 74.5 PPG, but they win games by forcing bad shots, crashing the glass (36.5 RPG), and punishing teams that get careless. L.J. Cryer leads the way with 15.6 points per game, while Milos Uzan runs the offense with 4.4 assists a night. It’s a deep, relentless squad that wears teams down.
Key Matchups to Watch
Trey Kaufman-Renn vs. Houston’s Interior Defense
Kaufman-Renn is Purdue’s best scorer and most efficient offensive weapon. But he’s going to be met with elite help defense, swarming bigs, and physicality that doesn’t let up. If he can’t get his touches cleanly, Purdue’s offense might sputter early.
Braden Smith vs. Houston Pressure
Smith has been phenomenal as a passer, but Houston thrives on ball denial and hard hedges. His decision-making under pressure will be tested. If he’s forced into mistakes, Houston can flip this game open fast.
Rebounding Disparity
It’s not glamorous, but this could be the game. Purdue ranks 349th in rebounds per game. Houston is 131st—not elite, but more than good enough to dominate the glass if Purdue doesn’t box out. One team is going to get a lot of second-chance points.
Betting Odds & Lines
- Spread: Houston -7.5
- Total: 132.5
- Moneyline: Houston -375, Purdue +290
(Odds via azcentral.com as of March 28, 2025)
Betting Angles & Trends
- Purdue is 19-16 against the spread (ATS) this season and has covered in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Houston is 19-17 ATS, but 4-1 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
- The Over has hit in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games, and 5 of Purdue’s last 7.
Expert Predictions & Picks
This one’s a stylistic clash: Purdue has the better top-end scorers, but Houston is deeper, nastier on D, and just doesn’t beat itself.
Purdue’s path to victory is narrow: they need Kaufman-Renn to dominate, Smith to avoid turnovers, and someone else to get hot from three. But if Houston dictates pace, forces Purdue into late-clock offense, and owns the boards? They could grind out a double-digit win.
Most analysts lean Houston to win outright, but Purdue to keep it close longer than expected.
The Sweat’s Best Bets
- Purdue +7.5 – They’re inconsistent, but they don’t get blown out often, and they’ve got shot-makers.
- Over 132.5 – Low total for two teams with capable scorers. Even with Houston’s D, this one could sneak past the number.
- L.J. Cryer Over 16.5 Points – Cryer is built for tournament spotlight and has a green light. He’ll get the volume.
Final Thoughts: Purdue vs. Houston Preview
This game’s all about control. If it’s ugly, slow, and physical, Houston wins by suffocation. But if Purdue can find offensive rhythm, take care of the ball, and get production outside of Kaufman-Renn, they’ve got a shot to make this one interesting.
Expect a bruising battle where every possession matters. Houston’s the favorite for a reason—but if Purdue brings their A-game, this might be the most intriguing matchup of the Sweet 16.
