NCAA Tournament First-Round Preview: Ole Miss Rebels vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (March 21, 2025)
Game Details:
- Date & Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- Broadcast: TNT
- Betting Odds:
- Point Spread: North Carolina -1.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina -130 | Ole Miss +110
- Over/Under: 154.5 points
Ole Miss Rebels Overview (22-11, 10-8 SEC, No. 6 Seed)
The Rebels enter the tournament with an up-tempo offensive approach, averaging 77.2 points per game. However, their defense allows 71.7 points per game, and rebounding is a glaring weakness.
Key Stats:
- Rebounding: 33.1 RPG (270th nationally)
- Top Player:
- Sean Pedulla: 14.9 PPG, 3.6 APG – The primary offensive weapon who’ll need to control tempo.
North Carolina Tar Heels Overview (23-13, 13-7 ACC, No. 11 Seed)
UNC shocked many by earning an at-large bid, but after dominating in the First Four, they’re carrying momentum into this matchup. The Tar Heels average 81.2 points per game and are aggressive on the glass.
Key Stats:
- Rebounding: 36.8 RPG
- Top Players:
- RJ Davis: 17.3 PPG – The offensive leader and volume scorer.
- Elliot Cadeau: 6.1 APG – Floor general who facilitates the Tar Heels’ high-octane offense.
Key Matchups to Watch:
- Guard Duel:
Sean Pedulla vs. RJ Davis will be pivotal. Both can score and run the offense efficiently. - Rebounding Edge:
North Carolina’s advantage on the glass (36.8 RPG vs. 33.1 RPG) could decide the game. - Tempo Control:
Ole Miss needs to slow the pace and avoid letting UNC’s fast-break offense dominate.
Betting Angles & Trends:
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- Ole Miss: 16-16-1 ATS (48.4%)
- North Carolina: 16-19-1 ATS (44.4%)
- Over/Under Trends:
- Ole Miss: Over in 17 of 33 games (51.5%)
- North Carolina: Over in 17 of 36 games (47.2%)
Given the 154.5 total, both offenses can light up the scoreboard, making the over worth a look.
Expert Predictions & Best Bets:
🔥 Best Bet: North Carolina -1.5 (-110)
💰 Lean: Over 154.5 (-110)
🎯 Prop Bet: RJ Davis Over 19.5 Points
Final Thoughts: Ole Miss Rebels vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Preview
This matchup boils down to tempo, rebounding, and guard play. North Carolina’s momentum, rebounding edge, and RJ Davis’ scoring prowess give them a slight advantage. Ole Miss will need to tighten up defensively and dominate in the half-court to pull off the upset.
