We are down to one week left of NFL regular season football, and almost all of the playoff spots have been claimed. We know 12 of our 14 postseason teams (six in each conference), and only a handful of games in Week 18 have any real meaning.
That gives us time to pause, look back, and reflect on what we thought we knew four months ago, and what we do know today.
Most Valuable Player
When the season began, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was the MVP front-runner, paying +450. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson was almost a forgotten man, paying +1800. Mahomes has still been great, but Jackson has put together another MVP-worthy season in 2024, and today a bet on Jackson pays +225.
But perhaps the best player all season long has been Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills were going to take a step back this season. There was a dearth of good wide receivers on the roster and the defense was going to struggle. Except that narrative from late August is nowhere near as important as the narrative at the end of December – Josh Allen is having the best season of his career.
Allen is now the heavy favorite to win the MVP award at -300.
Rookie Quarterbacks
It’s not that Jayden Daniels was ignored during the preseason. The Heisman Trophy winner and second overall pick was +500 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s just that he played for the Washington Commanders, and there was an assumption that his location, along with the rawness of his game, would hold him back.
Meanwhile, No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams was going to be the runaway winner of the award, paying +120. In fact, he was going to be so good, his Chicago Bears were even getting some love as a darkhorse Super Bowl contender. The Bears were paying the same Super Bowl odds as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, and were paying shorter odds than the Commanders, Los Angeles Rams, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
That all seems silly today. All of those teams are in the playoffs, and the Bears have been eliminated for weeks. Daniels is going to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and fellow rookie quarterbacks Drake Maye and Bo Nix have also outperformed the preseason favorite.
As it is every year, quarterback remains the most difficult position to predict.
Comeback Quarterbacks
The difficulty of predicting the quarterback position isn’t just with rookies. The preseason leader to win Comeback Player of the Year was New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s going to the Hall of Fame the first year he is eligible, but he will not win CPOY. He’s no longer even on the board after opening the season at +140.
Like Rodgers, Kirk Cousins was coming back from a torn Achilles, and with his new big contract with the Atlanta Falcons, he was paying +500 to win Comeback Player of the Year in the preseason. With the season on the line and a playoff spot in the offing, Cousins was benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr.
Joe Burrow came back from a wrist injury and is having a phenomenal season, even though his Cincinnati Bengals have yet to make the playoffs. Sam Darnold has been an afterthought since he was traded to the Carolina Panthers in 2001. Now on his fourth NFL team, he’s playing like a top-tier quarterback.
Burrow is actually coming off an injury, and that makes him the favorite at -350 to win his second Comeback Player of the Year. But Darnold will be playing for the No. 1 seed next Sunday, and no one has done more for the future of his career than Darnold.
Playoff Turnover
One of the more unusual aspects of this season is the lack of playoff turnover. In 2023, we had six playoff teams that weren’t there in 2022. This year, the turnover is going to be much lower, with five of the AFC teams from last season already in the playoffs, and the possibility of a sixth with the Miami Dolphins. The Los Angeles Chargers are the only new team as of Week 17.
The Bengals, Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars were all even odds or better to make the AFC playoffs, and only the Bengals still have a chance.
In the NFC, the Rams, Packers, Eagles, and Lions are all back, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -1400 to join them as the NFC South champion. The Vikings and Commanders are the only new playoff teams in the NFC.
The 49ers, Cowboys, Falcons, and Bears were all even odds or better to make the NFC playoffs, and only the Falcons still have a chance.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
