NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Betting Preview

The most competitive weekend of the NFL season is here. The remaining eight best teams play doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday, with the winners moving just one game away from making a trip to the Super Bowl.

About 12 months ago, it was these same four Divisional Round participants in the AFC. In the NFC, only the Detroit Lions remain from last year’s final four contenders.

Saturday

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs played a meaningful football game was Christmas. That was in Pittsburgh, where the Chiefs wrapped up the top seed in the AFC just four days after beating the Houston Texans.

That Texans loss in Kansas City looked to be the end of the line for the AFC South champs. They were the division winner that was going to lose in the Wild Card Round, limping into the postseason and playing their worst football of the season.

Then that Wild Card game took place, and the Texans reminded everyone that their defense is one of the best in football. But can it step up in Kansas City, where the Chiefs ended the season playing their best football?

The Chiefs are the most experienced team in the field, and as much as they struggle to put teams away in the regular season, last year in the playoffs, the Chiefs were 4-0 against the spread. Since Patrick Mahomes became the quarterback, the Chiefs are 15-3 in the playoffs and 13-5 against the spread.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-8.5)

The magical run of the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels may have met its match this week with their trip to the Detroit Lions. The Commanders should be able to score points against the Lions, as they have been able to do against most defenses they’ve faced. But the Lions will have no issues scoring on Washington’s defense.

Running back David Montgomery is back, reuniting him with his backfield mate, Jahmyr Gibbs. And even when they were short-handed, the Lions rolled through the end of the season, averaging 36.2 points per game over their last five games. Detroit covered the spread in their last three games, including a 31-9 thumping of the Minnesota Vikings to clinch the top seed in the NFC in Week 18.

Last year in the playoffs, the Lions were 2-1 against the spread.

Last week in Tampa Bay, the Commanders were three-point underdogs, and came away with the three-point win. Daniels became the first rookie quarterback to win a playoff game on the road since Russell Wilson in 2012.

Sunday

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

The Los Angeles Rams team that showed up in the Wild Card could have beaten any of the teams in the playoff field. The week they experienced from the out-of-control fires in Los Angeles, and the energy in the building as the team wanted to play for their city, sparked a Rams runaway over the 14-3 Vikings. L.A. sacked Sam Darnold nine times, and Matthew Stafford looked like he did three years ago during the Rams Super Bowl run.

The Eagles offense did not look good in its Wild Card win over the Green Bay Packers. A.J. Brown read as many books on the sideline as passes caught on the field, and Jalen Hurts finished with just 131 yards passing.

However, the Eagles defense was terrific. They forced four turnovers and didn’t allow a touchdown until the fourth quarter. In their last three games, including their playoff win, they have allowed just 10 points per game.

It’s easy to picture the Rams coming back to earth after last week’s emotional win. But if they can continue to keep the Eagles offense in neutral, this might be the upset of the weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

The game of the weekend is the matchup of the year. No matter which side of the MVP debate you come down on, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the top two. Both players have strong cases for being the best player of the year, and both teams have all the parts that make a Super Bowl champion.

It wasn’t an even game when they played back in September. The Baltimore Ravens crushed the Buffalo Bills, 35-10, and Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards. Josh Allen didn’t throw for a touchdown or run for a touchdown for the only time all season (not including Week 18, where he only took one snap).

The Bills defense is healthier than it was then, and no one expects a touchdown-free game for Allen. The Ravens will be without wide receiver Zay Flowers, who hasn’t practiced with the team since hurting his knee in Week 18. But even with all that, and the home field advantage of Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, it is Baltimore that is favored.

However, the last time the Bills were the underdog was Week 15 at Detroit, and Buffalo won outright.