Game Details:
- Date & Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, at 12:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
- Broadcast: CBS
- Betting Odds:
- Point Spread: Mississippi State -1.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi State -125 | Baylor +105
- Over/Under: 135.5 points
- BPI Projection: Baylor has a 61.4% chance of winning
Mississippi State Bulldogs Overview (21-13, 8-10 SEC)
The Bulldogs earned the No. 8 seed in the West Region after an up-and-down SEC season. Known for their defensive efficiency and strong rebounding, Mississippi State can wear teams down but often struggles with scoring consistency.
Key Notes:
- Strengths: Defense and rebounding
- Weakness: Inconsistent offense
- Key Player:
- Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG): The Bulldogs’ top scorer and crucial offensive weapon.
Baylor Bears Overview (23-10, 11-7 Big 12)
Baylor secured the No. 9 seed after a solid Big 12 campaign. The Bears feature one of the top 5 three-point shooting offenses (39.4%) in the nation, averaging 81.8 points per game, but give up 74.1 points per game due to defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Notes:
- Strengths: Elite outside shooting, high-scoring offense
- Weakness: Defense, particularly on the glass
- Key Players:
- Ja’Kobe Walter & RayJ Dennis: Baylor’s dynamic backcourt duo, capable of scoring in bunches.
Key Matchups to Watch:
- Backcourt Battle:
Josh Hubbard will face off against Baylor’s elite guard combo, Walter and Dennis. Scoring efficiency and ball control will be critical. - Rebounding Duel:
Tolu Smith anchors Mississippi State’s interior presence and will look to exploit Baylor’s struggles on the boards.
Betting Angles & Trends:
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- Mississippi State: 17-17 ATS (50%)
- Baylor: 16-15-2 ATS (51.6%)
- Over/Under Trends:
- Mississippi State: Over in 20 of 34 games (58.8%)
- Baylor: Over in 18 of 33 games (54.5%)
With the total set at 135.5 points, both teams’ strengths suggest value on the Over, especially with Baylor’s ability to score quickly.
Expert Predictions & Best Bets:
🔥 Best Bet: Over 135.5 (-110)
💰 Lean: Baylor Moneyline (+105)
🎯 Prop Bet: Josh Hubbard Over 16.5 points
Final Thoughts: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Baylor Bears Preview
Expect a competitive 8 vs. 9 matchup with contrasting styles — Mississippi State’s defense and rebounding versus Baylor’s offensive firepower. The spread leans Mississippi State, but BPI favors Baylor, and their three-point shooting makes them a dangerous underdog. Bettors should target the Over and consider Baylor ML for strong value in what promises to be a close contest.
