Tip-Off: Friday, March 28, 2025 – 7:09 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: CBS
Introduction
The road to the Final Four intensifies as the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans clash with the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels in a compelling Sweet 16 showdown. Both teams have showcased resilience and tenacity throughout the tournament, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle in Atlanta.
Team Overviews
Michigan State Spartans (29–6, 17–3 Big Ten)
Under the seasoned guidance of Coach Tom Izzo, the Spartans have enjoyed a stellar season, clinching the Big Ten regular season title and demonstrating consistent excellence on both ends of the court. Offensively, they average 78.2 points per game, with junior guard Jaden Akins leading the charge at 12.7 points per game. Their defense is formidable, allowing just 67.0 points per game, and they dominate the boards with 40.1 rebounds per game, ranking 17th nationally.
Ole Miss Rebels (24–11, 10–8 SEC)
Coach Chris Beard has revitalized the Rebels, steering them to their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2001. The team’s balanced scoring attack is spearheaded by junior guard Sean Pedulla, who averages 15.2 points per game. Offensively, they post 77.4 points per game, but their rebounding has been a concern, averaging 33.1 rebounds per game, placing them 339th nationally.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Perimeter Shooting
Ole Miss has been lethal from beyond the arc, connecting at a 49% clip in the tournament. Conversely, Michigan State boasts the nation’s top three-point defense, limiting opponents to a mere 27.8% success rate. The battle between the Rebels’ sharpshooters and the Spartans’ perimeter defense could be decisive.
2. Rebounding Battle
Michigan State’s prowess on the boards contrasts sharply with Ole Miss’s struggles in this area. The Spartans’ ability to dominate the glass could limit second-chance opportunities for the Rebels and control the game’s tempo.
3. Coaching Chess Match
This game features a compelling sideline showdown between Tom Izzo and Chris Beard, both renowned for their tactical acumen and tournament experience. Their strategic adjustments throughout the game will be pivotal.
Betting Odds & Lines
- Spread: Michigan State -3.5
- Total: 144.5 points
- Moneyline: Michigan State -180, Ole Miss +150
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 28, 2025)
Betting Angles & Trends
- Michigan State has covered the spread in 23 of their last 28 games, indicating a strong performance against expectations.
- Ole Miss has hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games, showcasing their ability to secure outright wins, even as underdogs.
- Total Points: The over/under is set at 144.5 points, suggesting expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair.
Expert Predictions & Picks
Analysts are divided on this matchup. Some highlight Michigan State’s defensive tenacity and rebounding edge as key factors, while others point to Ole Miss’s offensive versatility and recent momentum. The consensus leans slightly towards the Spartans covering the spread, but the Rebels’ potential for an upset remains a compelling narrative.
The Sweat’s Best Bets
- Michigan State Moneyline (-180): The Spartans’ balanced attack and defensive solidity make them a reliable pick to advance.
- Under 144.5 Points: Given both teams’ defensive capabilities, a lower-scoring game is plausible.
- Jaden Akins Over 12.5 Points: As Michigan State’s leading scorer, Akins is likely to play a pivotal role in the offense.
Final Thoughts: Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Preview
This Sweet 16 matchup promises a captivating blend of strategic depth, individual talent, and contrasting styles. Michigan State’s defensive discipline and rebounding dominance will be tested against Ole Miss’s offensive flair and perimeter shooting. The outcome may hinge on which team can impose its will and adapt to the evolving dynamics of the game. Fans can anticipate a hard-fought contest with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
