Game Details:
- Date & Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, at 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- Broadcast: CBS
- Betting Odds:
- Point Spread: Kentucky -11.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky -800 | Troy +550
- Over/Under: 152.5 points
Kentucky Wildcats Overview (22-11, 10-8 SEC, No. 3 Seed)
Under first-year head coach Mark Pope, Kentucky secured a No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region and was ranked No. 11 overall by the Selection Committee. The Wildcats play an up-tempo, high-octane style, ranking among the nation’s best in scoring but struggling defensively.
Team Stats:
- Offense: 85.3 points per game (4th nationally)
- Defense: 77.9 points allowed per game (324th nationally)
Key Players:
- Otega Oweh: 16.2 PPG, shooting 48.9% from the field
- Amari Williams: 11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 APG – Provides size and versatility in the paint
Troy Trojans Overview (23-10, 13-5 Sun Belt, No. 14 Seed)
Head coach Scott Cross led Troy to a Sun Belt Conference title, securing an automatic NCAA Tournament berth. The Trojans are defensively stout, ranking in the top 25 nationally in points allowed, and excel at forcing turnovers.
Team Stats:
- Offense: 73.9 points per game
- Defense: 65.4 points allowed per game (25th nationally)
Key Players:
- Tayton Conerway: 14.3 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.9 SPG (Sun Belt Player of the Year)
- Thomas Dowd: 6.8 RPG – Anchors Troy’s rebounding
Key Matchups:
Perimeter Play:
- Kentucky’s Otega Oweh vs. Troy’s perimeter defense
Oweh’s scoring ability will test Troy’s defensive schemes. - Troy’s Tayton Conerway vs. Kentucky’s backcourt
Conerway’s playmaking and defensive pressure could disrupt Kentucky’s offensive rhythm.
Interior Presence:
- Amari Williams (Kentucky) vs. Thomas Dowd (Troy)
Williams’ versatility could give Kentucky an edge, but Dowd’s rebounding will be crucial for Troy to control possessions.
Betting Angles & Trends:
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- Kentucky: 16-15-1 ATS (51.6%)
- Troy: 20-11-0 ATS (64.5%)
- Over/Under Trends:
- Kentucky: Over in 18 of 32 games (56.3%)
- Troy: Over in 14 of 31 games (45.2%)
With the O/U set at 152.5 points, Kentucky’s fast-paced offense could push the total over, though Troy’s defense aims to slow things down.
Expert Predictions & Picks:
🔥 Best Bet: Over 152.5 (-110) – Kentucky’s high-powered offense combined with Troy’s ability to score makes the over appealing.
💰 Lean: Troy +11.5 (-110) – Troy’s defensive intensity and solid ATS record suggest they can stay within the number.
🎯 Prop Bet: Tayton Conerway Over 15.5 Points – As Troy’s top scorer, expect Conerway to take on a big offensive role.
Final Thoughts: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Troy Trojans Preview
This matchup showcases a classic contrast in styles: Kentucky’s explosive offense vs. Troy’s defensive tenacity. While the Wildcats are favored to advance, Troy’s disciplined defense and ability to force turnovers could keep it closer than expected.
Bettors should watch the pace and rebounding battles to find value on both the spread and total lines.
