Game: (4) Arizona Wildcats vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils
Date: Thursday, March 28, 2025
Time: 9:39 PM ET
Location: Prudential Center – Newark, NJ
Region: East
Broadcast: CBS
Game Overview
Welcome to the Sweet 16, where the matchups get spicier, the narratives get juicier, and if you’re Caleb Love, the stakes might feel personal. The Arizona Wildcats roll into Newark fresh off two tournament wins, looking like a team with unfinished business. Standing in their way? The blue-blood buzzsaw known as the Duke Blue Devils—who haven’t just been winning games, they’ve been dismantling teams with the precision of a Swiss watch and the confidence of a Wall Street trader at happy hour.
Arizona’s got grit. Duke’s got swagger. And one of college basketball’s most chaotic March madmen is about to go head-to-head with the sport’s best player. This one’s got heat.
Betting Odds & Lines (via FanDuel, as of 3/27)
- Spread: Duke -9.5
- Moneyline: Duke -500 / Arizona +370
- Total: 154.5
Public Lean: 62% of bets are on Duke to cover. Over/Under is getting hammered on the over early.
Team Overviews
Duke Blue Devils (33-3, 19-1 ACC)
It’s not just that Duke is winning—they’re crushing souls. They’ve held opponents under 65 points in 7 of their last 9 and are scoring 83.2 per game (13th in the nation). They’re led by Cooper Flagg, the freshman phenom averaging 18.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and shooting a crisp 48.8% from the floor. Oh, and did we mention he’s also their assist leader at 4.2 per game? He’s basically the team’s MVP, point guard, rim protector, and first-round pick—all rolled into one.
Arizona Wildcats (24-12, 14-6 Big 12)
Don’t let the 12 losses fool you. This team has found a rhythm at exactly the right time. Caleb Love (16.8 PPG) is the emotional engine, and if there’s one thing he knows how to do—it’s get under Duke’s skin. Jaden Bradley adds a steady hand at the point (3.7 APG), and Arizona crashes the boards well, averaging 40.1 rebounds per game (16th nationally). They’ve scored 82.2 per game (18th), but their defense has looked vulnerable at times—allowing 72.5 PPG.
Fun Fact: Duke and Arizona played earlier this season in Tucson. Duke won that one, 69–55. Cooper Flagg dropped 24. You think Arizona forgot? They didn’t. Think Duke cares? They don’t.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Caleb Love vs. Duke’s Defense
We all remember it—2022 Final Four, Love ends Coach K’s career with a dagger from deep. Now he’s in different colors, but the rivalry lives on. Love has the swagger, but he’ll have to be efficient. Duke’s defense ranks among the best in the country and will throw length and pressure his way. - Flagg vs. Everyone
Seriously. Arizona doesn’t have a one-man answer for Cooper Flagg. He’s long, smart, and dictates tempo. Look for the Cats to throw bodies at him—Kylan Boswell, Motiejus Krivas, whoever’s breathing—but if Flagg gets cooking, it could be lights out early. - Rebounding War
Arizona’s one of the best rebounding teams in the country. If they’re going to keep this close, they need second-chance points and to limit Duke’s clean looks. This could be a scrap under the rim all night.
Betting Angles & Trends
- Duke is 8-2 ATS in their last 10. They’ve been smashing tournament spreads.
- Arizona has covered in 6 of their last 8, but their ATS record overall is only 18-17-1.
- The Over is 5-2 in Arizona’s last 7 and 4-1 in Duke’s last 5.
- Duke’s winning games by an average margin of 21.5 points in the tournament.
Historical Hook
Love has beaten Duke three times already in his career—including the infamous dagger that sent Coach K to retirement. If revenge is a dish best served cold, Duke’s about to microwave it.
Expert Predictions & Picks
- KenPom: Duke is No. 2 overall. Arizona is No. 20.
- BartTorvik: Predicts Duke by 8.2 points
- ESPN BPI: Gives Duke a 78.4% chance to win
The Sweat’s Take: Duke has the better defense, more consistent scoring options, and the game’s best player. But Arizona has the x-factor: chaos. If Caleb Love gets hot, all bets are off.
The Sweat’s Best Bets
- Best Bet: Duke -9.5
They’re simply playing on another level right now, and Arizona’s defense doesn’t have enough answers. - Prop Bet: Caleb Love OVER 17.5 points
Narrative + volume shooter + personal vendetta = green light. - Total Lean: Over 154.5
Duke can put up 85 themselves if this gets loose. Arizona’s got weapons too.
Final Thoughts: Arizona vs. Duke Preview
This one’s not just a game. It’s a sequel. A rivalry reboot. A redemption arc with teeth. If Duke comes out firing, it could be another surgical performance. But if Arizona keeps it close, drags it into the mud, and lets Caleb Love start chirping and chucking—this could go full Tarantino.
You want safe bets? Ride with Duke. You want to feel alive? Grab that +370 and whisper “revenge game.”
