Tip-Off: Friday, March 28, 2025 – 7:39 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: TBS
Introduction
The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 brings us a classic SEC rivalry as the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats face off against the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers. This marks their third meeting this season, with Kentucky having secured victories in both regular-season matchups. The stakes are higher than ever as both teams vie for a coveted spot in the Elite Eight.
Team Overviews
Kentucky Wildcats (24–11, 10–8 SEC)
Under the leadership of first-year coach Mark Pope, the Wildcats have made their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2019. Offensively, Kentucky boasts an impressive 85.0 points per game, ranking 7th nationally. Junior guard Otega Oweh leads the team with 16.3 points per game, shooting 49.4% from the field. The Wildcats also excel in ball distribution, averaging 17.1 assists per game (21st nationally). Defensively, they allow 77.2 points per game, indicating a preference for high-scoring affairs.
Tennessee Volunteers (29–7, 12–6 SEC)
Coached by the experienced Rick Barnes, the Volunteers are making their third consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, a program record. Tennessee averages 74.6 points per game, with senior guard Chaz Lanier leading the scoring at 18.1 points per game. Their defense is a standout feature, allowing just 62.9 points per game, placing them among the nation’s elite. Junior guard Zakai Zeigler orchestrates the offense effectively, averaging 7.4 assists per game.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Perimeter Shooting
Kentucky’s offense thrives on efficient three-point shooting, a factor that played a significant role in their previous victories over Tennessee. Conversely, Tennessee’s defense is renowned for its ability to guard the perimeter, making this a critical battleground. The Wildcats’ success from beyond the arc against the Volunteers’ perimeter defense could heavily influence the game’s outcome.
2. Battle of the Guards
The matchup between Kentucky’s Otega Oweh and Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier promises to be electrifying. Both guards are their team’s leading scorers and possess the ability to take over games. Their performance will be pivotal in determining the offensive flow and success of their respective teams.
3. Coaching Strategies
The strategic duel between Mark Pope and Rick Barnes adds another layer of intrigue. Pope’s fresh approach has revitalized Kentucky, while Barnes’ extensive experience provides Tennessee with a steady hand. Their in-game adjustments and tactical decisions will be under the spotlight in this high-stakes encounter.
Betting Odds & Lines
- Spread: Tennessee -4.5
- Total: 146.5 points
- Moneyline: Tennessee -180, Kentucky +165
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 28, 2025
Betting Angles & Trends
- Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog, and 2-0 ATS vs. Tennessee this season.
- The Over is 7-3 in Kentucky’s last 10 games, including both tournament wins and both matchups vs. Tennessee.
- Tennessee is 9-1 SU when holding opponents under 70 points, but just 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Expert Predictions & Picks
Analysts are divided on this matchup. Some favor Tennessee due to their defensive prowess and the challenge of defeating a team three times in a season. Others lean towards Kentucky, citing their offensive capabilities and previous success against the Volunteers. The consensus indicates a closely contested game with potential for either team to advance.
The Sweat’s Best Bets
- Kentucky +4.5: Given their success in previous matchups and offensive firepower, the Wildcats covering the spread is a viable option.
- Over 146.5 Points: Both teams have the capability to score, and a high-scoring game aligns with their recent performances.
- Otega Oweh Over 16.5 Points: As Kentucky’s leading scorer, Oweh is likely to play a significant role in the offense.
Final Thoughts: Kentucky vs. Tennessee Preview
This Sweet 16 matchup encapsulates the excitement and unpredictability of March Madness. With a storied rivalry, contrasting styles, and high stakes, fans can anticipate a thrilling contest. Whether Kentucky can secure a third victory over Tennessee or the Volunteers can turn the tide remains to be seen, but the battle for a spot in the Elite Eight promises to be memorable.
