Tip-Off: Thursday, March 27, 2025 – 10:09 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: TBS
Introduction
From a crowded middle in the SEC to the verge of a Cinderella run, Arkansas is dancing deeper than many expected. Standing in their way? A Texas Tech team that’s been quietly dominating behind efficient scoring and a nasty defense.
Two teams with very different styles—one gritty, one polished—but both playing with house money and a chance to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight. Let’s break down this Sweet 16 showdown between the Razorbacks and the Red Raiders.
Team Overviews
Arkansas Razorbacks (22–13, 8–10 SEC)
Coach John Calipari’s first season in Fayetteville has been… eventful. Arkansas stumbled to a sub-.500 conference record, but they’ve hit their stride at the right time. Their offense doesn’t wow on paper—just 76.6 points per game (105th nationally)—but it’s been timely and opportunistic in March.
Johnell Davis leads the team with 11.4 points per game, though he’s shooting just 39.2% from the field. D.J. Wagner adds 11.1 points and 3.6 assists, but the real efficiency comes from forward Trevon Brazile, who’s hitting 60.6% of his shots.
They’re a mid-tier rebounding team (35.5 per game, 194th nationally) and below-average in assists (14.3, ranked 142nd), but their defense keeps them in games—allowing just 71.0 points per contest.
Fun Fact: Arkansas had eight teams tied at 8–10 in the SEC. They emerged as the last one standing.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (27–8, 15–5 Big 12)
Texas Tech cruised to a second-place Big 12 finish, riding one of the most balanced rosters in the tournament. JT Toppin is the alpha—dropping 18.1 points and pulling in 9.3 boards per game while shooting over 56% from the floor.
They put up 80.8 points per game (29th in the nation) while allowing just 67.6. That +13.2 point differential? Dangerous. Elijah Hawkins keeps the offense humming with 6.5 assists a night—top 10 nationally—and they share the rock well (16.7 assists per game, 32nd overall).
They don’t rely on one guy to do it all. This is a deep, physical team that thrives on controlling the tempo, crashing the glass, and making smart second-half adjustments.
Fun Fact: Texas Tech has held 10 opponents under 60 points this season.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. JT Toppin vs. Arkansas’s Frontcourt
Toppin is a matchup nightmare. He’s too strong for wings and too quick for most bigs. Arkansas will likely throw Brazile and Mitchell at him in waves. If Toppin dominates inside early, it could force Arkansas to shrink their defense—and that opens the perimeter floodgates.
2. Arkansas Guard Play vs. Texas Tech Pressure
D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis need to take care of the ball. Texas Tech forces mistakes and turns them into points. If Arkansas coughs it up 12+ times, this could get away from them quickly.
3. Adou Thiero’s Status
Thiero (15.7 PPG) missed the second-round win with an injury. If he’s back and even close to 100%, he changes everything. If he’s out? That’s a massive blow to Arkansas’s offensive ceiling. Calipari has claimed Thiero will be available to play…although he then wasn’t able to practice on Wednesday.
Betting Odds & Lines
- Spread: Texas Tech -5.5
- Total: 147.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -235, Arkansas +195
(Odds via BetMGM as of Mar. 27, 2025)
Betting Angles & Trends
- Texas Tech is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
- Arkansas has covered 6 of their last 7 tournament games as an underdog.
- The Over is 5-1 in Texas Tech’s last 6 games.
- Arkansas is 7-1 when shooting over 50%—but just 3-10 when under 45%.
Expert Predictions & Picks
On paper, this is Texas Tech’s game to lose. They have more weapons, a better offense, a more consistent defense, and a floor general in Elijah Hawkins who rarely makes mistakes.
But March is all about momentum, and Arkansas is rolling. Calipari’s squad has embraced chaos and turned games into fistfights, and if they can slow down the tempo, this could be a grinder.
Still, without Thiero, the scoring edge tilts heavily toward Texas Tech. If he suits up, the line probably drops a point or two.
The Sweat’s Best Bets
- Texas Tech -5.5 – Even with uncertainty around the availability of Chance McMillian (reportedly a game-time decision), their offense and defense are just more consistent.
- Over 147.5 – Arkansas’s pace has picked up lately, and both teams have scorers who can light it up.
- JT Toppin Over Points (PROP) – If Thiero sits, Toppin might go off. He’ll get volume either way.
Final Thoughts: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Preview:
This one could surprise people. Texas Tech is a better team, full stop—but Arkansas is unpredictable, scrappy, and playing with nothing to lose.
If Toppin gets hot early and Hawkins controls the tempo, the Red Raiders should pull away late. But if Arkansas can ugly this up, force Texas Tech into ISO play, and hit a few timely threes? They’ve got a puncher’s chance.
Either way, expect this one to be physical, tense, and decided in the final six minutes.
