Game Details:
- Date & Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2025, at 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- Broadcast: truTV
Betting Odds & Lines:
- Point Spread: American University is favored by 2.5 points
- Moneyline: American University -145, Mount St. Mary’s +118
- Over/Under: 129.5 points
- BPI Projection: American University has a 54.2% chance of winning
Team Overviews:
American University Eagles (22-12, 11-7 Patriot League): The Eagles secured their spot in the tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament. They average 70.2 points per game, shooting 45.1% from the field. Defensively, they allow 68.7 points per game, with opponents shooting 42.3%. Their balanced offense and disciplined defense have been key to their success.
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12, 10-8 MAAC): The Mountaineers earned their tournament berth by capturing the MAAC Tournament title. They average 68.9 points per game on 44.6% shooting, while allowing 67.8 points per game defensively, with opponents shooting 41.9%. Their methodical pace and emphasis on defense make them a challenging matchup.
Key Matchups to Watch:
- Guard Play: American University’s Elijah Stephens (G) leads the team with 4.2 assists per game while adding 9.8 points per game. He’ll face Mount St. Mary’s Xavier Lipscomb (G), who averages 4.4 assists per game and 6.8 points per game. Lipscomb’s ability to disrupt Stephens’ ball distribution will be crucial.
- Frontcourt Battle: Eagles’ Matt Rogers (F) contributes 17.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, matching up against Mountaineers’ Dola Adebayo (F), who averages 13.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. This battle in the paint could determine control of the boards and second-chance opportunities.
Betting Angles & Trends:
- Against the Spread (ATS): American University has an ATS record of 17-13-1, covering 56.7% of the time. Mount St. Mary’s stands at 15-15-2, covering 50% of the time. The edge goes to the Eagles in ATS performance.
- Over/Under Trends: The over has hit in 18 of American University’s 31 games (58.1%), while Mount St. Mary’s games have gone over in 16 of 32 instances (50%). Given the over/under line of 129.5 points, bettors should consider both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Expert Prediction & Picks:
This game features two teams with contrasting styles. American University’s balanced offense and slight edge in defensive efficiency give them a modest advantage. However, Mount St. Mary’s disciplined defense and recent form cannot be underestimated. Expect a closely contested game, with American University likely covering the 2.5-point spread. The total points may lean over, considering both teams’ scoring tendencies.
The Sweat’s Best Bets:
- 🔥 Best Bet: Over 129.5 (-110) – Both teams have shown offensive prowess recently, suggesting a higher-scoring game.
- 💰 Lean: American University -2.5 (-110) – The Eagles’ stronger ATS record and balanced play might give them the edge to cover the spread.
- 🎯 Prop Bet to Watch: Matt Rogers Over 16.5 Points (-115) – As American University’s primary scorer, Rogers is likely to have a significant impact in this matchup.
Final Thoughts: American University vs Mount St. Mary’s Preview
The First Four matchup between American University and Mount St. Mary’s offers an intriguing battle of teams with contrasting styles. Fans can anticipate a tightly contested game where execution and adaptability will be key. For bettors, focusing on the total points and individual performances provides valuable opportunities.
