When the season began back in September, the Washington Commanders were paying +15000 to win the Super Bowl. After losing in Week 1, those odds grew to +16500. Now they are paying +750 to win the Super Bowl, a feat that sits just two wins away.
The Commanders aren’t supposed to be here, largely because no rookie quarterback is supposed to be here. Jayden Daniels is going to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s one win away from becoming the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl. The five previous who made it to a conference championship game all lost. The most recent of those was Brock Purdy two seasons ago with the San Francisco 49ers. His run for rookie greatness ended at Lincoln Financial Field in the NFC Championship.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the team that ended Purdy’s rookie season, and they hope to do it again to Daniels and the Commanders. These two division rivals split the season series this year, but when the Commanders finished on top in Week 16, Jalen Hurts was injured, giving way to Kenny Pickens.
The Commanders may have gotten a break that week, with Hurts throwing just four passes, compared to 24 by the backup, Pickett. But against a great Eagles defense, the Commanders scored 36 points and Daniel threw five touchdown passes. He also led the team in rushing yards with 81.
If this Sunday’s game is anything close to that Sunday’s game, we are in for a special four quarters.
Game Line: Eagles (-6)
The Eagles failed to cover the spread last week against the Los Angeles Rams, but overall, they have been strong ATS. Philly covered in the Wild Card round against the Green Bay Packers, and in the regular season, they were 11-6 against the spread, including 9-2 over their last 11 games. One of the two losses was Week 16 against the Commanders, when Philadelphia lost outright as four-point favorites.
In the first of the two meetings in Week 11 in Philadelphia, the Eagles were 4.5-point favorites and won, 26-18. The Commanders actually went into that fourth quarter with the lead. But then, Saquon Barkley happened, and the Eagles put up 20 points in the quarter.
Washington was 10-6-1 against the spread in the regular season, and as underdogs in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, the Commanders now have 12 wins ATS this season.
Quarterback Proposition Bets
Jayden Daniels does not seem to change, no matter the game’s importance. He is every bit as poised in a playoff game as he was in the regular season, as we’ve seen. So there really aren’t any questions about him being ready for this stage. That question was asked and answered.
Daniels has a pass yardage line of 223.5, and on the ground, his over/under is 54.5.
On the other sideline, the question lingers about the health of Jalen Hurts. He missed the final two games of the regular season with a concussion, then injured his knee last week against the Rams. He came back into the game and finished it. But when given the opportunity to run the most dominant short-yardage play in the NFL, the tush push, they declined.
Hurts has a passing yards over/under of 183.5, and with an uncertain knee, his rushing yards line is down to 32.5.
Running Back Proposition Bets
Saquon Barkley loves to play against the Commanders. In their first meeting in Week 11, he had fourth quarter touchdown runs of 23 yards and 39 yards, and finished the game with 146 yards rushing. In the second meeting, Barkley had a two-yard touchdown run and a 68-yard touchdown run, and he finished the game with 150 yards rushing.
On Sunday, the over/under on Barkley’s rushing yards is 126.5, and he is by far the game’s best bet to score a touchdown. He is -220 for an anytime touchdown, and +330 to be the game’s first scorer.
Daniels is the expected leading rusher for the Commanders with his line of 54.5. Brian Robinson Jr. is next at 37.5 rushing yards, with Austin Ekeler at 19.5. Daniels is +200 to score a touchdown, Robinson is +185, and Ekeler is +270.
Pass Catcher Proposition Bets
There are a pair of great wide receivers in this game, with A.J. Brown for the Eagles and Terry McLaurin for the Commanders.
Brown has an over/under of 61.5 receiving yards, and he is +150 to score a touchdown. His teammate, DeVonta Smith, has a receiving yards line of 48.5, and tight end Dallas Goedert has a line of 32.5 receiving yards. Smith is +195 to score a touchdown and Goedert is paying +290. Goedert scored a touchdown in the Wild Card game, and was the Eagles leading receiver last week.
Scary Terry McLaurin has thrived with his new quarterback, and his over/under for Sunday is 64.5 receiving yards. McLaurin had 89 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card, and 87 yards and a touchdown in the Divisional Round. He is paying +135 to score a touchdown in this one.
Dyami Brown has an over/under of 43.5, and tight end Zach Ertz is at 32.5 receiving yards. Brown is +340 to score a touchdown, and Ertz, a former Eagle, is +285 to score.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
