Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: AFC Championship Betting Preview

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson rivals Patrick Mahomes in MVP trophies, and Jackson can pass the Kansas City star next month in individual hardware for that category if he wins another one.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow beat Mahomes in 2022 at home in the playoffs, keeping the Chiefs from going to yet another Super Bowl.

But the real on the field rival of Mahomes is Josh Allen.

For the fourth time in the playoffs, the two star quarterbacks play head-to-head, and for the second time, it comes in the AFC Championship Game. Allen and the Buffalo Bills have regularly gotten the better of the Chiefs when they play in the regular season. Allen is 4-1 against Kansas City in the fall, including a win this past November. But in the three January meetings, it has been all Kansas City, with Mahomes winning in the playoffs four years ago, two years ago, and last year.

The games have been great, and the performances from both great quarterbacks have been everything you could want. And no matter which team wins, they will take a good story to the Super Bowl. For the Bills, it would be their first Super Bowl appearance in 30 years, and possibly the first Super Bowl win in franchise history. For the Chiefs, it would be history. No team has won three Super Bowls in a row, and none of the back-to-back winners made it to the Super Bowl with a chance to win a third.

Game Line: Chiefs (-1.5)

Last week, in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs took a safety at the end of the game to help run the clock and position themselves for a better kick. In the grand scheme of the game, it was meaningless. The Chiefs still won comfortably by nine points. However, with a point spread of 9.5, it was hardly meaningless to everyone.

KC did not cover last week because of that call by Andy Reid, but traditionally this team is very good against the spread in the postseason. Last season, the Chiefs were a perfect 4-0 ATS in the postseason, and over the last three years, they are 8-2 against the spread. And each time they’ve beaten the Bills in the playoffs, the Chiefs have covered.

It is worth noting that this season, when the Bills go into a game as the underdog, they are 3-1 straight up, notching wins as an underdog against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, the Detroit Lions in Week 15, and the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round last week.

Quarterback Proposition Bets

In the Divisional Round three years ago, these two quarterbacks treated us to one of the best games of football we’ve ever seen. Kansas City won in overtime, 42-36, and Mahomes had 378 yards passing, 69 yards rushing, and four total touchdowns. In the losing effort, Allen had 329 yards passing, 68 yards rushing, and four total touchdowns. It was a heavyweight fight, with two great champions going toe-to-toe, and it was a shame both quarterbacks couldn’t play again the following week.

Bookmakers don’t see this weekend’s game with the same fireworks as that classic, with the over/under passing yards line for Mahomes set at 254.5, and Allen at 231.5. The line of rushing yards for Mahomes is 25.5, with Allen at 49.5. Allen is also a heavy favorite to find the end zone, paying -115. Mahomes is less of a sure scorer, paying +370.

Running Back Proposition Bets

Mahomes and Allen were their team’s leading rushers in the overtime Divisional Round game, and in last year’s playoff loss, Allen was once again the leading gainer on the ground. That is not the expectation for Sunday.

The Bills have been so good on offense this season because Allen is amazing, but also because running back James Cook has been outstanding. His over/under on rush yards is 56.5, and he is paying +120 to score a touchdown. In the regular season, Cook finished with 18 total touchdowns.

The Chiefs bring two potential lead backs to the table with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. The over/under for Hunt is 36.5, a week after rushing for 44 yards against the Texans. In the meeting with Buffalo in November, Hunt finished with 60 yards. The rushing line on Sunday for Pacheco is 32.5, and both backs are paying +180 to score a touchdown.

Pass Catcher Proposition Bets

For most of the season, Travis Kelce was washed out, over the hill, and ready for retirement. But when it comes to excelling in the playoffs, no one is better, and that is still true of him at the age of 35. He has the most receptions in postseason history, and he ranks second all-time in yards and receiving touchdowns, trailing only Hall of Famer Jerry Rice.

Kelce had his record-breaking ninth 100-yard postseason game last week, and his over/under for this game is 69.5. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy is at 49.5, Hollywood Brown is at 38.5, and DeAndre Hopkins has a line of 24.5. The last time Hopkins made a postseason catch was five years ago at Arrowhead Stadium, but as a member of the Houston Texans.

Khalil Shakir has been the top wide receiver for the Bills all season, and his over/under against the Chiefs is 55.5 receiving yards. Last week against the Ravens, he had had six catches for 67 yards. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is next with a line of 32.5 receiving yards, and rookie Keon Coleman, held to just one catch for five yards last week, has a receiving yards line of 20.5.

The top touchdown scoring wagers for the pass catchers begins with Kelce at +125, Worthy at +195, Shakir at +250, and Coleman paying +350.