Pete Alonso Favorite to Win Third Home Run Derby Title

Monday’s Home Run Derby is everyone’s favorite All-Star event, and once again New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the expected winner. He won in 2019 and 2021, and was the runner-up in 2022. Alonso will head into the Derby as the +330 favorite to become just the second player to win the power-hitting showcase three times. Ken Griffey, Jr. won the event in 1994, 1998, and 1999.

Alonso was knocked out in the first round last year, and to ensure that he doesn’t have another bad showing, he is going back to the pitcher that made him a regular contender, Dave Jauss. The former Mets bench coach threw to Alonso in 2021 and 2022, and even though he now coaches for the Washington Nationals, he will be on hand to help Alonso.

Hometown Favorite Bobby Witt Jr. 

Bobby Witt Jr. plays his big league ball with the Kansas City Royals. But when the 24-year-old was in high school, he was just 16 miles from Globe Life Field in Colleyville, Texas. His father also pitched for the Texas Rangers during his 16-year Major League Baseball career.

Witt is paying +425 to win the Derby, and there are a number of factors that make him a good bet. According to Statcast Park Factors, Globe Life favors right-handed home runs nine percent over left-handed home runs. Witt has the highest maximum exit velocity of any of the eight Home Run Derby participants, and he has the longest home run average of the group.

The one thing working against Witt is that this is the first time he’s been in the Derby. However, five of the eight participants are first-timers, so it’s not a huge liability.

Co-Hometown Favorite Adolis Garcia

Witt may have his roots from just down the road, but Adolis Garcia actually plays for the Rangers. This is his home park, these are his home fans, and no one can get on a hot streak quite like Garcia, as we saw last October when he was the ALCS MVP.

Garcia was in the Derby last year and didn’t make it out of the first round, which has him down at +550 to win this event. His average bat speed is the seventh-slowest in the field, and at 72.2 MPH, it’s just a tick above the MLB average. His 17 home runs this season ranks him sixth in the field.

Odds for the Field

After Alonso at +330 is Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna, tied with Witt at +425. Ozuna is second in the field with 26 home runs, and he’s on pace to beat last year’s career-high of 40 home runs. Ozuna is a first-time participant, but he’s the oldest hitter in the field at 33.

Baltimore Orioles slugger Gunnar Henderson beat out Witt for the starting shortstop job in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, and he is +475 to beat everyone in Monday’s Home Run Derby. His 28 home runs are the most of the eight hitters, and he also leads the group with a 75.8 MPH bat speed. That ranks him ninth in Major League Baseball.

Teoscar Hernandez gets lost in the loaded lineup of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he has 19 home runs for L.A., and is paying +950 at the Home Run Derby.

Jose Ramirez is a six-time All-Star for the Cleveland Guardians. He has 23 home runs and is paying +1300. Alec Bohm is last in the field with just 11 home runs this season, and like Hernandez with the Dodgers, he comes from a loaded lineup with the Philadelphia Phillies. Bohm has the longest odds in the Derby field, paying +1600.